Economic impacts
Codes EC1 to EC10. The final link in the chain, where every preceding dimension is expressed in pounds.
The ten metrics fall into three groups by who bears the cost: users, the organisations that own and run the network, and society at large.
The metrics
| Code | Metric | Applies to |
|---|---|---|
| EC1 | Cost of journey delay (£) | Short and long-term |
| EC2 | Cost of journey cancellation (£) | Short and long-term |
| EC3 | Public transport revenue loss (£) | Short and long-term |
| EC4 | Cost of emergency response (£) | Short and long-term |
| EC5 | Cost of asset repair, including labour costs (£) | Short and long-term |
| EC6 | Cost of asset reconstruction, including labour costs (£) | Long-term only |
| EC7 | Cost of increased GHG emission (£) | Long-term only |
| EC8 | Cost of increased air pollutant emission (£) | Long-term only |
| EC9 | Cost of injuries and fatalities (£) | Short and long-term |
| EC10 | Cost of social inequity (£) | Long-term only |
User costs: EC1 and EC2
EC1: Cost of journey delay
The cost of journey delay for users can be quantified as the product of total delay time and the value of time.
That value should ideally be differentiated by journey purpose, to account for variation in the economic value of time across different travel purposes such as commuting, business or leisure.
Why purpose-differentiated values matter
An hour lost from a business trip and an hour lost from a leisure trip are not economically equivalent, and standard appraisal practice values them differently.
Using a single blended value would systematically misprice disruptions depending on which kinds of trip they happened to hit. This is also why OP5 records cancellations by trip purpose.
EC2: Cost of journey cancellation
The cost of journey cancellation can be estimated from the number of cancelled trips and the associated generalised travel cost, reflecting the welfare loss incurred when trips cannot be completed.
No empirical estimates exist
The handbook states plainly that, to the best of the authors' knowledge, empirical estimates of cancellation costs are currently unavailable.
The generalised travel cost may therefore be approximated using proxy measures:
- Income-based estimates
- Applying a fixed number of hours valued using the value of time
Any EC2 figure is consequently a proxy rather than an observed cost, and should be reported as such.
Owner costs: EC3 to EC6
Owner costs encompass the financial losses of entities that own or manage transport systems.
| Code | Cost | How it arises |
|---|---|---|
| EC3 | Public transport revenue loss | Revenue lost from bus service cancellations, obtained through ticket loss |
| EC4 | Emergency response | Responding to the disruption event |
| EC5 | Asset repair | Repairing road asset damage, including labour costs |
| EC6 | Asset reconstruction | Rebuilding where damage is catastrophic, including labour costs |
Repair and reconstruction are separate for a reason
EC5 applies to both short and long-term disruption; EC6 to long-term only.
The distinction tracks severity. A road that is damaged can be repaired within a short recovery period. A road that must be reconstructed implies the catastrophic asset damage and extended recovery that defines a long-term disruption scenario.
Societal costs: EC7 to EC10
Societal costs capture the broader external impacts on the wider community.
| Code | Cost | Derived from |
|---|---|---|
| EC7 | Increased GHG emission | EN1 |
| EC8 | Increased air pollutant emission | EN2 and EN3 |
| EC9 | Injuries and fatalities | SO8 to SO10 |
| EC10 | Social inequity | SO1 to SO5 |
EC10 is the hardest metric in the framework
No widely accepted valuation method
The cost of social inequity is inherently difficult to quantify, reflecting the absence of widely accepted methods for valuing distributional and equity-related impacts.
This is an open problem in the field rather than a gap in the framework. POESE includes the metric because the impact is real and should not be omitted simply because it resists monetisation.
In practice, the underlying social metrics may carry more weight than any monetary figure placed against EC10.
Required input data
Economic performance metrics are derived from agent-based model outputs together with relevant appraisal parameters.
| Ingredient | Source |
|---|---|
| Delay, cancellation and activity outputs | Transport model |
| Values of travel time, differentiated by journey purpose | Department for Transport (2026) |
Appraisal parameters should be cited and dated
Values of time are revised periodically. Because EC1 and EC2 scale directly with them, any published cost should state which parameter set and vintage it used, so results remain comparable across studies and over time.
Reading the economic dimension
The three groups answer different questions, and summing them into a single headline figure loses the distinction that matters most:
| Group | Question | Who pays |
|---|---|---|
| User costs | What did travellers lose? | Individuals, in time and foregone activity |
| Owner costs | What did it cost to run and restore the network? | Operators and asset owners |
| Societal costs | What did everyone else absorb? | The wider community |
An adaptation measure that reduces owner costs while raising user or societal costs has not obviously improved anything, which is why POESE keeps the three visible separately.